Authors Note Oct 2021 : This article was last updated in 2017. At that time we were in a reasonably normal market and an argument could be made that there was a slight seasonal advantage to selling in the spring. Due to a historically low inventory of available homes that is no longer the case. If you have a home or condo to sell you are in a great position now. However, it is uncertain how long these favorable conditions will last. Use caution trying to time the market.
If you are considering selling your home in Florida, you maybe be asking yourself - what is the best time for selling your Florida home. Can I time the market or does it even matter in my situation? I have seen articles that suggest that there is one exact day of the year that is the optimal day to put your home on the market. I think that is an absurd notion. They are way too many factors that can influence timing the sale of a Florida home or any home for that matter.
It makes sense to assume the best time to sell a property is when the most people are buying. The most sales activity in South Florida is during the first two quarters of the year. The least activity is during the last quarter of the year. But there are a few other things to consider if you are trying to time the market.
Sales activity does fluctuation from season to season here in Florida, but not as much as most people think. Waiting for when sales activity is highest may not payoff big for you in the end. You need to look at the bigger picture. Market conditions can change from year to year. If you decide to wait until next years peak selling season any number of things can happen that could change buyers attitudes towards buying.
What Criteria to Use?
I have read other opinions about deciding the best time of year for selling a Florida house. Many used the fluctuation in median sales prices from month to month as a deciding factor. I think this makes for a flawed analysis. The median sales price is the price where an equal number of sales occurred both above and below the median sales price. I find this number to be extremely erratic from month to month. It isn't unusual to a bounce in median sales price from one month to the next that exceeds the average sale price change for an entire year. In real life you won't see the value of a property make a sudden change in from say February to March or September to October.
In my opinion there is a better statistic that reflects supply and demand as well as current consumer confidence. That statistic is closed price to original list price ratio.
Closed Price to Original List Price Ratio
I discovered this statistic in the Fort Lauderdale MLS many years ago. Below is the closed price to original list price ratio for Broward County in 2017. It shows that sellers got closest to their original asking price in August. They closed the furthest from their asking price in January. Based on this chart it stands to reason the best time to sell is in late spring and the worst time to sell is early winter. Keep in mind market conditions do change. The spring of 2005 and 2006 were good times to sell. The spring of 2007, 2008, and 2009 were not. Right now, near the end of 2017, the overall market is steady and homes are selling. The chart also makes the difference appear more pronounced than it really is. If you take a close look. The difference from best to worst is not even 1%.
I hope that this continues but we never know what will happen in the future. I would argue that now is a good time to be selling. Interest rates are still low, the stock market is rising, and consumer sentiment is strengthening. How long these trends continue is anyone's guess.
What Type Buyer Will Your Home Appeal To?
The best months to sell a Florida condo may be different from the the best month to sell a Florida house. If you own a single family home and the most likely buyer will have school-aged children, then the most activity will be before the school year starts. If you own a vacation type condo like on a golf course or on the beach, the timing may be different. You don’t want to rule out listing in the last quarter of the year. That's because a buyer of that kind of property may be looking to settle in before it gets cold up north. If you have an investment property to sell, then the seasons have little influence on demand. Investors with cash want to keep it working for them, and they are buying year around.
First time home buyers are more likely to buy near the end of their lease, which may not be anywhere near the peaks or valleys of the selling season.
Is Your Property Vacant?
If the answer is yes, then the best time to sell your South Florida home is immediately. No matter what time of year it is. The carrying costs you are paying on such things as taxes, insurance, and maintenance will negate any minor seasonal bump you might hope to get.
Here in South Florida we pretty much have a year around selling season. Some months are better than others. Yet activity is much more consistent than in other parts of the country. If you look closely at the chart the spread between the best and the worst is very thin. We are talking about 1 percentage point at best. There are advantages to selling during the off peak months. The biggest advantage is less competition. Inventories of available homes tend to increase in late winter through spring.
I can understand why a seller would want to avoid putting a property on the market when fewer people are buying. Now that I have shown you how to time the market, I am going to talk you out of it. The best time to sell is when you need or want to sell and the current market conditions are favorable. We never know when the conditions will change. Look at how the Covid-19 virus has disrupted the market this year. I am sure plenty of people had been planning to sell this spring only to have the market essentially shut down on them for months. Fortunately for them the market has opened up again and homes are selling again.
In fact market conditions have become very good as we approach the last half of 2020. Interest rates are at all time lows. People need housing and there is pent up demand. Buyers that are out looking now are not tire kickers, they are serious buyers. I have been seeing and hearing about a lot of multiple offer situations due to an extremely low inventory of available homes. How long will these favorable conditions last? We won't know until it is too late so and there is no certainty conditions will still be favorable in the next spring selling season.
Fortunately for us, here in South Florida, sales are fairly consistent throughout the year. There are buyers of all kinds all year around. If you have to sell your home, don't be too worried about timing the market. Sell when you are ready to sell. To maximize your net proceeds it is just as important to hire an experienced agent with a proven track record, like myself for example.
If you are considering selling contact me at 954-895-2431 for a consultation.
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